Arch in the Crosshairs, Bama in the Furnace

Welcome back, depth chart detectives, spread-line sharks, and preseason philosophers still trying to explain Belichick in baby blue.

This week, we’ve got Ohio State setting the trap for Arch and Texas, Alabama rolling into Tallahassee without a running back (and without fear), and Micah Alejado turning garbage-time TV into fantasy relevance. Meanwhile, Florida State fans are Googling "moral victory rules" and Stanford already wants a do-over.

This newsletter is for the ones tracking injury reports like crime scenes, the real ones betting Wisconsin to cover 17.5 with zero shame, and anyone who knew The CW was about to become a football network. Let’s get into it.

First time here? SIGN UP
Got a hot take or cold stats? Email us: [email protected]

📰 Two-Minute Drill

Belichick’s UNC Era Is Finally Here. We’re All Watching.
Bill Belichick is about to make his college football debut. At 73. With North Carolina. After a Hall of Fame NFL career and roughly zero tolerance for nonsense, he now inherits a program that’s been allergic to relevance since Reagan was in office. The Tar Heels open Saturday, and if this works, we’ll eat a visor.
📎 Read More

The CW, But for Football
The Pac-12 just inked a multi-year extension with The CW, locking in a broadcast partner through 2031. Yes, the same network that aired “Gossip Girl” reruns is now a lifeline for Power 5 football. Media rights in 2025 remain a beautiful mess.
📎 Read More

Ohio State Didn’t Ban Dave Portnoy. FOX Did.
Campus chaos erupted after rumors swirled that OSU had banned Barstool’s Dave Portnoy ahead of the Texas showdown. Turns out it wasn’t Ohio State, but FOX Sports, likely for reasons more corporate than scandalous. Still, a very Ohio misunderstanding.
📎 Read More

Ten Bold Predictions: Arch, Belichick, and a Surprise ACC No. 1
NBC Sports dropped its spicy preseason takes, and they’re not shy. Belichick makes the playoff. Arch wins the Heisman. James Franklin finds happiness? Maybe not that last one. But if half of these hit, we’re in for a year of absolute chaos.
📎 Read More

Three Top-10 Games in Week 1? That’s a First.
Texas vs. Ohio State. LSU vs. Clemson. Notre Dame vs. Miami. All in Week 1. The AP confirms this is the first time three top-10 matchups are stuffed into the season’s opening full slate. It’s basically a playoff appetizer. Or a scheduling accident. Either way, we’re in.
📎 Read More

🍿 The Popcorn Games

No. 1 Texas @ No. 3 Ohio State
📍 Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
🕒 Saturday, 7:30 PM ET on ABC
Arch Manning goes into the Shoe in his first real road test as QB1 of the preseason No. 1 team. Ohio State, defending national champs, are quietly loaded again with a new-look receiving corps and nasty front seven. This one smells like a playoff preview, and someone’s Heisman campaign is about to explode or die.

No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 9 LSU
📍 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
🕒 Saturday, 3:30 PM ET on CBS
It’s a rematch of the 2019 title game, but now Clemson’s back with Cade Klubnik, and LSU is trying to out-transfer everyone. Old-school culture vs. portal power, with Dabo desperately needing a statement win. The Tigers will win. We just don’t know which Tigers.

No. 6 Notre Dame @ No. 10 Miami (FL)
📍 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
🕒 Saturday, 8:00 PM ET on FOX
Notre Dame hits the road under the lights to face a Miami team that finally looks like it belongs back in the conversation. The Hurricanes have speed everywhere and something to prove after a decade of irrelevance. It’s a perfect storm of history, ego, and early CFP implications.

Alabama @ Florida State
📍 Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
🕒 Sunday, 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
Nick Saban’s gone, but Alabama still brings elite pressure and expectations into a hostile environment. FSU, fresh off a messy offseason, is looking for revenge after last year’s opener flop. It’s a true litmus test for both programs—and maybe a new era of Southern chaos.

AI You’ll Actually Understand

Cut through the noise. The AI Report makes AI clear, practical, and useful—without needing a technical background.

Join 400,000+ professionals mastering AI in minutes a day.

Stay informed. Stay ahead.

No fluff—just results.

Smarter AI. Zero fluff.

🎯 Start. Sit. Cut. – Fantasy Player Movement

Start: Micah Alejado, QB, Hawaii

You probably didn’t watch Hawaii vs. Stanford unless you’re clinically addicted to football or lost a parlay. But redshirt freshman Micah Alejado casually threw for 210 yards and 2 TDs against a (technically) Power Five defense and completed 69% of his passes doing it. He was QB5 in some formats for Week 0, and if that’s what he does to Power teams, imagine the MACtion he’ll unleash later.

Sit: Literally no one yet

Everyone who was supposed to ball out did, and no high-profile fantasy darling fell on their face—yet. It's Week 0. Your sit candidates are probably still in warmups. But don’t worry, disappointment is coming. It always does.

Cut: Calm down

No one’s earned the boot yet. You don’t drop a dude after one quiet night unless it was real quiet... like, witness protection quiet. Week 1 will bring chaos. Until then, keep your itchy trigger finger off the waiver wire.

🩼 The Walking Boot – Injury Update

Dylan Edwards, RB – Kansas State
One of the most electric backs in the Big 12 is already in street clothes. Edwards tweaked his ankle in Week 0 and is officially out for Week 1—and probably Week 2. A rough blow for a Wildcats offense that wanted to run through him early and often.

Jam Miller, RB – Alabama
Crimson Tide fans hoping for clarity in the post-Saban era just got murky news: Jam Miller dislocated his collarbone and is out against Florida State. With a new QB and FSU’s defense up first, Alabama’s backfield is suddenly a lot less scary.

Emmett Mosley, WR – Texas
Texas heads to Columbus without certainty on Mosley, who’s nursing a leg injury and is officially questionable. If he’s out, Arch Manning loses a key target in what’s already shaping up to be a hostile environment. Circle this one for late lineup decisions.

💥 Dumpster Fire 5 – Pain Rankings (Week 0: Preemptive Edition)

Think of this as a "watch list for implosion"—programs that, before even taking a snap, are already sending up smoke signals. Injuries, distractions, PR flops, you name it. Here's who could be knocking on the gates of Week 1 chaos:

1. Kansas State
   Lost RB Dylan Edwards before even getting to the real season. He’s the centerpiece of their offense, and now they’re patching together a game plan without him. Not DEFCON 1, but close enough to start checking the fire exits.

2. Alabama
   New era, new QB, and now no Jam Miller for the opener against a fired-up Florida State. That’s not ideal for a program already in "prove it" mode. Add in the ghost of Saban hovering over everything like a crimson specter and yeah... we’re watching.

3. Texas (maybe)
   If Emmett Mosley can’t go, Arch Manning starts his Heisman campaign minus a key WR in The Shoe. That’s not quite a dumpster fire... but it’s like someone left a lit cigarette on the couch. Let’s see what happens Saturday night.

4. Stanford
   Lost to Hawaii. At home. In Week 0. That’s all. It’s going to be a long season on The Farm.

5. UCLA
   Quietly losing steam on all fronts: recruiting, transfers, visibility. They haven't played yet, but the vibes are not good in Westwood. Consider this a preventative ranking.

🎲 The Spread Option – Week 1 Picks

No. 1 Texas @ No. 3 Ohio State (Ohio State –2.5) — FanDuel lists OSU as a 2.5-point favorite in this high-voltage rematch of the CFP semifinal. The Horseshoe will be electric, Ohio State's defense is brutal, and Texas steps into enemy lines with a new QB.
Pick: Ohio State –2.5

Alabama @ Florida State (Alabama –13.5) — Multiple sources confirm a 13.5-point spread favoring Bama, including FanDuel and SportsLine’s model backing Alabama to dominate. Tide’s got the edge in discipline and depth—even without Jam Miller. FSU is more hype than heat.
Pick: Alabama –13.5

Boise State @ South Florida (Boise State –5.5) — According to CBSSports’s betting board, Boise State is favored by 5.5 in this mid-tier G5 showdown. Broncos bring experience and discipline; South Florida brings humidity and noise. Boise’s depth and tempo control push them to cover.
Pick: Boise State –5.5

Wisconsin vs. Miami (OH) (Wisconsin –17.5) — Though not a marquee game, the Badgers open widely favored (implied by no contradictory lines from expert picks) and appear locked in—with no weather or injuries to slow them down. Classic Wisconsin beatdown in the making.
Pick: Wisconsin –17.5

That’s it for this edition of “we’re not saying Belichick’s going 12–0, but we’re also not not saying it.”

See you next time, unless we’ve heatstroked in Tallahassee or accepted a CW pilot deal as a backup kicker.

Until then, remember: covering the spread is a lifestyle.

— The Convert on Fourth Down Team

📬 Toss us in your primary inbox.
📩 [email protected]