Mid-November, Maximum Survival Mode

In partnership with

November showed up like it always does, coffee in one hand, sledgehammer in the other, and it went straight for the teams that thought they had it figured out. Indiana kept breathing in that thin air with a toe-tap at Penn State, the kind of slow-motion catch that rearranges playoff doodles and convinces every neutral that chaos still runs the sport. Oregon tiptoed past Iowa on a last-second kick in the rain, proof that survival looks different but feels the same from coast to coast. Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt, found overtime cozy and turned Auburn’s Saturday into a very public therapy session. Alabama smothered LSU, Wisconsin gummed up Washington, and suddenly November looked less like a calendar and more like a pressure cooker for the quality-loss apologists.

Zooming in for substance, Maryland is blinking red, five straight losses after a 4-0 start, fans grumbling, and bowl math slipping into long-shot territory, which is how a season becomes a referendum.

College football just emptied your stress account, then asked if you wanted to reinvest your heart in Rivalry Week.

First time here? SIGN UP
Got a hot take or cold stats? Email us: [email protected]

📰 2-Minute Drill: Where Logic Goes to Die

Indiana steals one at Penn State
Omar Cooper Jr. toe-tapped the game winner with 36 seconds left as Indiana edged Penn State 27–24. Aggressive late play-calling paid off while Penn State’s soft coverage wilted. Franklin’s situational choices invite familiar scrutiny.
📎 Read More

Oregon survives Iowa on last-kick thriller
Atticus Sappington drilled a 39-yarder with three seconds left to beat Iowa 18–16 in a defensive grinder. Dan Lanning leaned on field position and trust in his kicker. Iowa’s conservative script again capped an elite defense.
📎 Read More

Texas Tech throttles BYU and grabs Big 12 leverage
The Red Raiders smothered BYU 29–7, winning third downs and tilting field position all night. Joey McGuire’s defense dictated tempo while the offense avoided mistakes. That looks like a blueprint, not a blip.
📎 Read More

Cal shocks Louisville in overtime
Freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hit Jacob De Jesus for the decisive OT score as Cal upset No. 14 Louisville 29–26. Creative motion and quick throws freed high-leverage looks. Louisville’s red-zone conservatism flipped the outcome.
📎 Read More

Big Ten says USC’s fake punt should have drawn a flag
The conference clarified USC’s jersey-swap fake punt violated uniform rules and merited a 15-yard penalty. Lincoln Riley’s special-teams gambit lost its loophole. Gamesmanship has a new line the league will actually police.
📎 Read More

📼 Instant Classic

No. 2 Indiana 27, Penn State 24 – Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

Indiana spent 59 minutes flirting with disaster, then authored a finish straight out of folklore. Down four with under a minute left, Fernando Mendoza piloted a cold-blooded march capped by Omar Cooper Jr.’s airborne, toe-tap touchdown with :36 remaining, the kind of body control that launches slow-motion montages and message-board wars. The Hoosiers walked out of Beaver Stadium still perfect at 10–0, the scoreboard and the blood pressure both screaming.

The sequence was a 10-play, 73-yard drive with no timeouts. Mendoza ripped sideline outs to stop the clock, then dropped the back-corner dime that Cooper pirouetted into history. Penn State had flipped a 20–10 hole into a 24–20 lead behind Nick Singleton’s fourth-quarter burst, only to watch Indiana’s quarterback-receiver duo snatch it back. The toe-tap stood on review, and the defense slammed the door on the last gasp, a cardiac stress test disguised as November football.

Context matters. Curt Cignetti’s upstart Hoosiers, yes Indiana, walked into a blueblood’s house and did not blink. Beaver Stadium supplied the intimidation, Indiana supplied the nerve. It is a classic because the underdog brand played heavyweight and landed the final, perfectly placed foot.

Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? (95.2% Accurate Forecast)

NVIDIA officially reports earnings November 19, but you can get a sneak peek right now.

Not just for NVIDIA, but for dozens of public companies.

On Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market (with verified 95.2% accuracy), you can see what top forecasters believe will happen.

Our new Earnings Markets let you:

• See real-time odds of NVIDIA beating estimates

• Predict what executives will say on earnings calls

• Profit directly from being right, regardless of stock price movement

• Trade simple Yes/No outcomes instead of complex options

Will Jensen stun Wall Street again?

Or is the AI trade finally cooling off?

Top forecasters are already positioning.

See Latest Earnings Forecasts

🎙️ Coach Speak Decoder Ring

What they said: "I’ve seen a lot of stuff in my day, I’ve never seen anything like this." — Curt Cignetti, Indiana, on the last-minute road win at Penn State

What they meant: We just survived a four-alarm circus and I’m as shocked as you are. This doubles as a recruiting pitch and a locker-room message: the new Indiana expects to thrive in chaos, not crumble in it. It also buys grace for every odd in-game decision because, hey, whatever that was, it worked. File it under “program reset,” with a side of disbelief that plays great on loop.

🧢 The Backup Plan: Quarterback Controversy of the Week

Location: Baton Rouge, LA (5–4)

Involved Parties: Garrett Nussmeier vs. Michael Van Buren Jr.

LSU yanked its starter in the third quarter at Alabama and handed the offense to Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren Jr. after repeated red-zone stalls. Interim coach Frank Wilson put a pin in the panic with, “We’re going to do what it takes to win the game… but Garrett Nussmeier is our starting quarterback.” Nussmeier finished 18-of-21 for 121 yards before the hook; Van Buren went 5-of-11 for 52 in relief.

What’s really happening is a spark search without burning QB1 equity. Nussmeier has locker-room capital and scheme command, but Van Buren’s mobility tempts a staff trying to stop a skid and secure bowl position. The likely outcome is a hot-hand week and a very short leash against Arkansas.

🚨 DEFCON 1: Hitting the Panic Button

Maryland
Five straight losses and a 35–20 faceplant at Rutgers, including 240 rushing yards allowed, have Maryland free-falling from 4–0 to bowl-scrambling. “I’ve been through worse,” Mike Locksley said as “Fire Locksley” chants bubbled up. That reads less like defiance and more like damage control.

Next up is a tricky trip to Illinois, then Michigan State, then ranked Michigan. That stretch makes two wins, and bowl eligibility, feel like advanced calculus. Media are already gaming out the numbers, with buyout talk in the low eight figures entering the conversation.

The mood in College Park is sirens and blinking lights, a program tapping the glass as water spills over the bulkhead.

🏆 Heisman Watch: The “Up and Down” Section

The Headliners

📈 Julian Sayin (Ohio State) [+175, DraftKings] – 27/33 for 303 yards in a 34–10 road win, smooth as an index fund in a bull market. Efficient, undefeated, and compounding; this is blue-chip stock climbing.

📈 Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) [+185 to +240, FanDuel range] – Orchestrated an 80-yard, no-timeout winner at Penn State, the viral “Heisman moment.” Narrative plus wins equals momentum; his shares are breaking resistance with volume.

📈 Ty Simpson (Alabama) [+400 to +450, BetMGM range] – 277 yards, 1 TD in a methodical 20–9 win over LSU. Solid but not sizzle; still a top-five holding, but candles show doji vibes.

📈 Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) [+700 to +900, DraftKings range] – Two scores in a 38–17 win at Missouri, steady hand for an unbeaten contender. Value-buy territory, quietly outperforming the market’s expectations.

The Lurkers

📈 Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) – OT dagger vs Auburn after rallying from down 10, video-board gold. Needs one more prime-time spike to jump tiers; volatility attractive for momentum traders.

📈 Gunner Stockton (Georgia) – 264 yards and 3 TD at Mississippi State, schedule heat coming. If he posts a statement against a heavyweight, this becomes a mid-cap breaking into the S&P.

The “Can They Sustain It?” Crew

📈 C.J. Carr (Notre Dame) – 13/16, 218 yards, 3 TD in a snowy 49–10 romp over Navy. Lovely chart, soft opponent. Needs a marquee breakout to avoid becoming a meme stock.

📈 Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) – 29/33, 333 yards, 3 TD in a 49–0 tune-up. Tape pops, strength-of-schedule does not. Next two games decide if this rally is real or a sugar high.

The “We Need to Talk About…” Section

📉 Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) [+3000 range for non-QBs, FanDuel] – Awesome numbers but overshadowed by Sayin’s QB premium. Non-QB path narrowed; his price drifts while voters chase safer tech, also known as quarterbacks.

Penny Stock to Watch

💰 Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) – 94 yards, 2 TD and a viral 48-yard balance-and-burst run in the snow. Long shot with cult momentum; fun lottery ticket if the Irish keep mooning.

Rivalry week will set the crockpot to scorch, someone will miss a chip shot, and we will all pretend the playoff committee watched the same games we did. Hydrate, update your bowl math, and silence the group chat during the final two minutes. Translation guide for the week: “We’re focused on us” means panic mode, “We’ll evaluate everything” means carousel music intensifies. Never trust October Heisman odds. Always remember kickers write the last sentence. Pack snacks, pace yourself, and keep the remote in throwing range.

College football is chaos you choose, so choose it loudly.

— The Convert on Fourth Down Team

📬 Toss us in your primary inbox.
📩 [email protected]