November Filed an Injunction Against Certainty

In partnership with

November strolled in like a compliance officer, clipboard out, asking who exactly deserves a seat at the big table. Ohio State kept the top chair, but everywhere else the room shifted, with lawyers shaping as much of the season as linebackers do, from Brian Kelly’s courtroom gambit to Pasadena reminding UCLA that leases are also playbooks. The Heisman market did its little nervous tap, elevating Fernando Mendoza just enough to make everyone stare at the remaining Saturdays like they are depositions. Out West, the ex-Pac powers kept learning the Big Ten’s slow-burn arithmetic, where field position is currency and tempo gets taxed. So this issue leans into the actual leverage points: why certain matchups will twist the bracket, which quarterback you trust when the lights get mean, and which injuries really change the math. We untangle the smoke signals, not to soothe you, but to make your panic informed.

If you wanted comfort food, there is soup; if you wanted November, bring a calculator and a helmet.

First time here? SIGN UP
Got a hot take or cold stats? Email us: [email protected]

📰 Two-Minute Drill

Ohio State holds No. 1 as the CFP field tightens
The committee’s second rankings keep Ohio State on top, with Indiana, Texas A&M and Alabama completing the top four. Bubble teams compressed, setting up a messy November for resumes and tiebreakers. The committee says clarity, the schedule says plot twist.
📎 Read More

Brian Kelly sues LSU over $54 million buyout
Kelly’s lawsuit argues LSU is trying to reframe his firing as for cause, which would void his buyout. The filing details failed settlement talks and a sharp dispute over contractual authority and timing. In the SEC, the real blitz packages are in the fine print.
📎 Read More

Pasadena and the Rose Bowl move to block UCLA exit
The City of Pasadena and the Rose Bowl Operating Company sought a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to keep UCLA from ending its lease and shifting games to SoFi. The lease runs through 2043. Only in L.A. do yard markers come with court filings.
📎 Read More

Heisman market leans to Fernando Mendoza, barely
ESPN’s update lists Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza as the favorite around +160, with Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson and Marcel Reed in pursuit. The piece stresses volatility with rivalry games and title stakes looming. Voters crave signature moments, the odds crave volatility.
📎 Read More

Former Pac-12 powers meet Big Ten gravity
AP surveys Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC as they adapt to a run-heavier league and fewer snaps. Coaches describe stylistic tradeoffs while November identity hardens across colder, slower Saturdays. Turns out tempo travels, but the chains still move by inches.
📎 Read More

The Briefing Leaders Rely On.

In a landscape flooded with hype and surface-level reporting, The Daily Upside delivers what business leaders actually need: clear, concise, and actionable intelligence on markets, strategy, and business innovation.

Founded by former bankers and veteran business journalists, it's built for decision-makers — not spectators. From macroeconomic shifts to sector-specific trends, The Daily Upside helps executives stay ahead of what’s shaping their industries.

That’s why over 1 million readers, including C-suite executives and senior decision-makers, start their day with it.

No noise. No jargon. Just business insight that drives results.

Subscribe free today.

🍿 The Popcorn Games

No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia
📍 Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
🕒 Saturday, 7:30 PM ET on ABC
CFP positioning and SEC clout, all in one cauldron. Texas looks to stretch the field against a Georgia defense that squeezes red zone possessions into dust. If the Longhorns land explosives early, Athens gets anxious. If Georgia owns short yardage and the clock, the lights favor the Bulldogs.

No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama
📍 Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
🕒 Saturday, 3:30 PM ET on ABC
Blue-blood showdown with playoff math attached. Alabama’s downfield passing has popped, but Oklahoma’s tempo and pass rush can scramble scripts fast. If the Sooners steal possessions and stay clean on third down, it bites. If Alabama controls vertical shots and field position, Tuscaloosa hums.

TCU at No. 12 BYU
📍 LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
🕒 Saturday, 10:15 PM ET on ESPN
Late-night altitude test with Big 12 stakes. BYU’s balanced run game and sturdy front invite a trench fight, while TCU’s chunk plays can flip momentum in two snaps. If the Frogs hit early explosives, Provo gets twitchy. If BYU leans on downhill runs and crowd noise, it turns methodical.

Bet Your Team On That Guy 🏈

Ty Simpson, QB, Jr., Alabama

Why he’s the guy: Simpson has Alabama humming with elite ball security and big-play efficiency, sitting at 2,461 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just 1 interception, plus a top-tier 81.3 QBR. He just handled LSU’s heat with 277 yards and no picks while controlling the game late.

Recent heater: Over his last three starts, Simpson has stacked 783 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, with a QBR of 78.8 or better each time. That stretch includes steady road management at South Carolina and a composed finish versus LSU.

How he wins: Quick-trigger timing to the intermediate windows, accurate verticals when safeties creep, and poise that shrinks turnover risk. With 23 total touchdowns on the year, he punishes single-high and lives in favorable down and distance.

Team MVP case: Alabama’s offense is built on explosives without giveaways, and Simpson is the lever that makes both happen. The Tide’s ceiling rides on his clean decision making, which maximizes a receiving corps that thrives when drives stay on schedule. His presence keeps the defense fresh and the field tilted.

This week’s stakes: Oklahoma comes to Bryant-Denny in a showcase with SEC and playoff implications, and Simpson’s efficiency gives Alabama a path to seize seeding leverage in November. National spotlight, pressure cranked, exactly his lane.

Why feature now: He is in form, he protects possessions, and he is stepping into a blue-blood collision that can swing the postseason board. If you want one player to ride this week, it is the guy who does not blink and does not give the ball away.

🩼 The Walking Boot – Injury Update

Dakorien Moore, WR – Oregon
Oregon’s passing game just lost its top target, which reshapes how defenses play the Ducks. Moore missed the Iowa game after suffering an injury in practice last week, with specifics and return timeline still unclear. It’s a tough break for a volume receiver who stretches the field. Fantasy managers should pivot to Oregon’s WR2 and tight ends, with a small bump to early-down rushing volume.

Elijah Sarratt, WR – Indiana
Indiana’s offense is holding its breath after Sarratt exited the Maryland game with a hamstring and was later labeled a game-time decision. Soft-tissue timelines can zig, so practice participation matters. While he’s trending day to day, the injury could cap explosiveness and red-zone targets if he suits up. Fantasy managers should monitor closely and be ready to elevate Indiana’s TE or RB target shares.

Le’Veon Moss, RB – Texas A&M
The Aggies’ downhill identity took a hit when Moss injured his ankle and was ruled out for a significant period. He went down during the Florida game, and although not season ending, the timeline runs into critical SEC weeks. It’s a tough break for A&M’s short-yardage engine. Fantasy managers should pivot to Rueben Owens II, with Amari Daniels and a freshman mix likely absorbing carries.

Carnell Tate, WR – Ohio State
Ohio State’s receiver room got thinner when Tate was held out against Purdue after experiencing tightness during warmups. Coaches framed it as precautionary, but his status for UCLA remains up in the air. The timing couldn’t be worse with playoff seeding at stake. Fantasy managers should plan for a contingency, expect Jeremiah Smith to remain the WR1, and monitor late-week status for any snap-count clues.

💥 Dumpster Fire 5 – Pain Rankings

Think of the Dumpster Fire 5 as a weekly pain index, not a power ranking. It tracks programs actively melting on live TV, judged by bad losses, collapsing game plans, coaching heat, injury chaos, and vibes that smell like burnt rubber.

Florida State
Record: 4-5, ACC preseason rank: No. 7
Florida State looked like a rebound, but the smell of stalled offense is what’s coming up now. A 24-10 loss at Clemson dropped the ‘Noles to 1-5 in ACC play, with red zone whiffs and flags turning winnable drives into compost. Mike Norvell is selling near-future championship vibes while bowl math gets sweaty. The margin for error is vapor, the schedule still has bite, and confidence is leaking in real time.

Boston College
Record: 1-9, ACC preseason rank: No. 13
From Red Bandanna catharsis to Red Bandanna gut punch, BC got flattened 45-13 by SMU, the ninth straight loss in a season that was supposed to stabilize. The Eagles surrendered 574 yards and chunk plays on repeat, then watched the crowd’s belief evaporate. Bill O’Brien can hear the hot seat sizzle, bowl talk vanished weeks ago, and the remaining slate is not charitable. Momentum leaks are real, and the offense-defense handshake is mostly shrugs.

Michigan State
Record: 3-6, Big Ten preseason rank: No. 13
Sparty’s rebuild keeps tripping on its own shoelaces. An overtime loss at Minnesota and a winless Big Ten mark underline a team that keeps flubbing clutch moments. Then the NCAA tacked on three years of probation and fines tied to the previous regime, which is exactly the kind of dumpster sparkle you do not need during a reset. The schedule still bites, the fan patience meter is blinking red, and September’s optimism feels like a different sport.

Florida
Record: 3-6, SEC preseason rank: No. 6
The Gators were supposed to be frisky. Instead, a 38-7 faceplant at Kentucky and a pile of turnovers turned the week into headache theater, with DJ Lagway benched after three first-half interceptions before the staff circled back to him. Now it is interim-mode survival, thin bowl odds, and a defense that cannot carry the mail alone. The preseason vote slotted Florida mid-pack, but the on-field tape says bottom third until proven otherwise. Hot seat sizzle included.

Oklahoma State
Record: 1-8, Big 12 preseason rank: projected bottom tier
From model of consistency to ash heap in two falls. A 69-3 humiliation at Oregon and a home loss to Tulsa pushed the button no one wanted to touch, and Mike Gundy was fired three games in. Doug Meacham took the interim tag while the Cowboys slid to 0-6 in league play. Offensive face-plant, defensive meltdown, historic margin, all inside three weeks. The vibes are cooked and the schedule still bites.

🎲 The Spread Option

New week, new math. We finally halted the bleeding with a winning card, trimmed the donation fund, and promised to stick to Tier 1 factors like adults. No chasing steam, no galaxy-brain parlays, just numbers that make sense and atmospheres that tilt outcomes. We are here for closing line value, fewer heart attacks, and a little swagger back in the bankroll.

Record Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 20-32-1

🔥 Prime Time Teeth
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia — Georgia -5.5 (FanDuel)
Texas wants explosives, Georgia specializes in turning red zones into dust bunnies. The Bulldogs’ run fits and rally speed shrink drives, and Athens at night punishes hesitation. If Sark stalls in short yardage again, the bell tolls.

Pick: Georgia -5.5.

🏗️ Brick-and-Bearcat Special
Arizona at Cincinnati — Cincinnati -6.5 (FanDuel)
Nippert at noon is a body-clock trap for a desert team that leaks sacks on the road. Cincy’s front gets home, and Brennan’s Cats have struggled as road dogs. Narrative says coin flip, trenches say lay it.

Pick: Cincinnati -6.5.

🎻 Bourbon Line Movement
Clemson at No. 19 Louisville — Louisville -3 (DraftKings)
Cards finally catching a favorite tag in this series, and Brohm’s third-down defense has been the adult in the room. Clemson’s high-leverage offense still coughs at the worst times. L&N at night supplies the echo.

Pick: Louisville -3.

🧊 Autzen Ice Bath: O/U Feature
Minnesota at No. 7 Oregon — Under 44.5 (BetMGM)
Gophers play glacial tempo, Oregon’s defense is bullying living rooms, and late-season Eugene weather trims explosives. If Minnesota’s scripted series burn clock and Oregon salting starts early, this total wears concrete shoes.

Pick: Under 44.5.

🧨 Blue-Blood Pressure Test
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 8 Alabama — Alabama -6.5 (BetMGM)
OU’s vertical game meets a Tide secondary that stopped giving up freebies, and Bryant-Denny adds two points to every third down. If Bama hits two deep shots, this spreads its wings.

Pick: Alabama -6.5

So there you have it: money and lawyers can move rankings faster than linebackers, camera angles cannot rescue a bad red zone, and Texas at Georgia does not care about your parlay or your feelings. UCLA’s lease drama, Ty Simpson’s steady pulse, and an Autzen under remind us the sport pays off chaos in cash and field position. Dumpster Fire 5 keeps smoldering, and next week the hate gets louder. Always remember, coach speak is a second language. Never trust October Heisman odds. Pack snacks, fade hubris, tip your kicker.

— The Convert on Fourth Down Team

📬 Toss us in your primary inbox.
📩 [email protected]