October Put the Checkbook on Speed Dial

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It’s mid-season, which means college football decided that firing a $49 million man, launching a Blazers rebuild on a Tuesday, and policing airborne tortillas are totally normal.

Honestly, bless this circus, where five ranked-on-ranked showdowns share a stage with depth-chart conspiracy theorists, backup-QB folk heroes, and kickers holding entire campuses hostage.

Welcome back, three-TV generals, fourth-down calculators with trust issues, and quality-loss philosophers practicing advanced cope.

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📰 Two-Minute Drill

Penn State moves on from James Franklin, $49 million buyout and all
Penn State fired James Franklin on Sunday after a three-game skid, including losses to winless UCLA and Northwestern. AD Pat Kraft cited Franklin’s big-game record and confirmed the $49 million buyout. Sometimes the most costly play is patience.
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Oregon State fires Trent Bray after 0–7 start, Robb Akey takes interim reins
The Beavers dismissed alum Trent Bray following a 39–14 loss to Wake Forest, the worst start since 1991. Oregon State named special assistant Robb Akey interim and owes Bray a little over $4 million, funded by donors. When the trend line points straight down, so does the buyout.
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UAB parts with Trent Dilfer after 2–4 start, Alex Mortensen elevated
A 53–33 loss at FAU was the final straw as UAB fired Trent Dilfer, who finished 9–21. OC Alex Mortensen is interim, inheriting a defense allowing 41.3 points per game, last in the AAC. Motivation is great, but tackling still matters.
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Week 8 brings five ranked-vs-ranked showdowns
Saturday features a season-high five AP Top 25 matchups: Mississippi at Georgia, LSU at Vanderbilt early, then Tennessee at Alabama, USC at Notre Dame, and Utah at BYU in prime time. Cancel errands, charge remotes, secure snacks.
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Big 12 fines Kansas over Leipold’s pocketknife comment, dings Tech for tortillas
The league fined Kansas $25,000 for Lance Leipold’s inaccurate claim a pocketknife was thrown at staff during the Texas Tech game. Tech also drew a $25,000 fine for repeated tortilla-throwing that caused penalties.
Message received, choose words and projectiles wisely.
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🍿 The Popcorn Games

No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia
📍 Dooley Field at Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
🕒 Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Hate-watch for trench truthers, top-10 leverage and Athens noise. Georgia’s balanced, bully ball with Gunner Stockton’s efficiency meets Ole Miss explosives and space creation. If Dawgs win early downs, clock squeeze follows. If Rebs hit a deep shot or two, Sanford gets twitchy. SEC title lane and CFP résumé swing here.

No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
📍 Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
🕒 Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Third Saturday in October with playoff oxygen, jet-engine loud. Ty Simpson’s intermediate darts versus Vols tempo and shot plays. If Bama drags it into third-and-medium purgatory, Tide control. If UT lands explosives off pace, Tuscaloosa tightens. SEC pecking order, Heupel vs DeBoer narratives, series momentum on the line.

UNLV at Boise State
📍 Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
🕒 Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1
MWC title vibes on the Blue Turf, rivalry of convenience, recent championship rematches. Colandrea’s scramble drill and vertical shots versus Boise’s structure, crowd, and field-position grind. If UNLV protects and steals a possession, shootout rules. If Boise squeezes possessions and wins special teams, blue wave. League pole position, revenge energy, series streaks matter.

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Bet Your Team On That Guy 🏈

Joey Aguilar, QB, Sr., Tennessee

Why he’s the guy: Portal vet turned pace car, Aguilar has Tennessee’s offense humming, top 15 nationally in passing and scoring. He just iced Arkansas with a late 28-yard keeper and sits at 1,680 yards, 14 TD, 64.8 percent.

Recent heater: Last three: 221 yards, 1 TD vs Arkansas, plus 59 rushing and the clock-bleeding scramble, 335 and a rush TD at Mississippi State, 218 and 3 TD vs UAB. Efficiency spikes without turnovers in the latest win, momentum into Tuscaloosa.

How he wins: Rhythm distributor in Heupel’s tempo, quick to free-access throws, comfortable layering seams and crossers, enough pocket movement to punish single-high. Play-action shots keep safeties honest, QB run sprinkled for leverage. Not every ball is pristine, but the volume plus decision speed turns possessions into points.

Team MVP case: Vols are 5-1, fifth in the SEC, leading FBS at 48.2 ppg with Aguilar driving it. Heupel on his QB, “He’s handled it at a really high level… same demeanor coming off on the sideline.” That steadiness papers over a leaky defense and keeps drives on schedule.

This week’s stakes: At No. 6 Alabama, Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Rivalry heat, CFP path clarity, SEC positioning. If Aguilar hits explosives without giveaways, Tennessee hangs deep into the fourth. Bet your team on the guy who accelerates a game’s tempo on command.

🩼 The Walking Boot – Injury Update

Jam Miller, RB – Alabama
Alabama’s backfield just got a lot less predictable. Miller entered concussion protocol after the Missouri win, and Kalen DeBoer called his Week 8 status “questionable” before Tennessee. While symptoms are improving, protocol controls the clock. Fantasy managers should monitor daily reports, with Richard Young and Daniel Hill poised to soak early carries if Miller sits or sees a snap cap in Knoxville.

Drew Allar, QB – Penn State
Penn State suffered a major blow when Allar was ruled out for the season with a left-leg injury late in the Northwestern loss. He was helped off, then carted to the locker room, ending a four-year run as starter. Redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer takes over. Fantasy managers should downgrade Nittany Lion pass catchers and expect a run-lean until the rookie finds rhythm.

Behren Morton, QB – Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s offense is holding its breath again. Morton exited the Kansas game with a right-leg issue, which Joey McGuire said was a re-aggravated calf injury, and he’s day-to-day. Redshirt freshman Will Hammond finished the win and would start if needed. Fantasy managers should prepare for volatility at QB and consider a short-term tilt toward Tech’s backs if Morton’s mobility is limited.

Derek Meadows, WR – Alabama
Alabama will have to lean on its veteran receivers for the time being. Freshman Derek Meadows entered concussion protocol after a targeted hit versus Missouri, and DeBoer indicated he’s likely out against Tennessee. It’s a tough break for Ty Simpson’s perimeter options. Fantasy managers should pivot to Tide stalwarts, with rotational wideouts seeing snap bumps while Meadows progresses through the protocol steps.

💥 Dumpster Fire 5 – Pain Rankings

Think of the Dumpster Fire 5 as a weekly pain index, not a power ranking. It tracks programs actively melting on live TV, judged by bad losses, collapsing game plans, coaching heat, injury chaos, and vibes that smell like burnt rubber.

Oregon State
Record: 0-7, Pac-12 preseason slot: No. 2 (two-team league)
From “maybe bowl eligible with a transfer QB” to a weekly stress test. The Beavers have coughed up blowouts to Oregon and Texas Tech, lost an OT heartbreaker to Houston, then got handled by Wake. Turnovers and protection issues, explosive plays allowed, confidence bleeding away in real time. With only Washington State left for league pride, momentum leaks are real, and the fan math has shifted from “how” to “if” they’ll win one.

Oklahoma State
Record: 1-5, Big 12 preseason rank: No. 13
The Cowboys were supposed to stabilize. Instead, they’re overmatched in every phase, fresh off a 39-17 home faceplant to Houston, and still looking for a second win. The offense can’t sustain drives, the defense gives up explosives, and discipline fades once they trail.

UMass
Record: 0-6, MAC preseason rank: T-No. 11
UMass’ MAC homecoming was billed as scrappy spoiler. It’s been a dumpster sparkle. Temple ran them, Bryant nicked them late, Iowa steamrolled 47-7, and Kent State dropped 42-6. Missed tackles, red-zone empties, and special teams gaffes directly led to avalanches. With league heavies still ahead, bowl math already looks imaginary and the “year one reset” narrative is doing Olympic-level heavy lifting.

UAB
Record: 2-4, American preseason rank: No. 9
The Blazers hit eject on Trent Dilfer after a 2-4 start and defensive numbers that read like horror fiction. FAU hung 53, the road losing streak kept growing, and the tackling tape is unkind. Interim Alex Mortensen inherits a fun passing game and a sieve on third down. With ranked Memphis next and depth thin, this feels like damage control more than a reboot.

Penn State
Record: 3-3, Big Ten preseason rank: No. 1
From preseason darling to midseason triage. A double-OT loss to Oregon snowballed into a UCLA thumping and a Northwestern gut-punch, then James Franklin got the door. The offense oscillates between chunk or bust, the run game lacks push, and late-game management couldn’t have looked more avoidable. The schedule toughens, the noise is loud, and the program’s margin for 2025 relevance is vanishing fast.

🎲 The Spread Option

Last week humbled us faster than a noon kick in November. Going 2-3 is the kind of record that makes you reconsider whether you actually understand football. This week we’re stripping it down, riding Tier 1 factors, line value, and environments that actually move outcomes. Fewer narratives, more numbers, and zero charity donations to the book.

Record Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 10-22-1

🔥 Annual Hate Festival
USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish — Notre Dame -9.5, Total 61.5 (FanDuel)
Rivalry hate in prime time with a market that trusts Notre Dame’s floor more than USC’s ceiling. Irish red-zone efficiency and pass rush travel, while USC leans on explosives to keep pace. South Bend at night adds juice, especially if weather leans choppy.

Pick: Notre Dame -9.5.

💥 Blue Turf Track Meet
UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos — Boise State -11.5, Total 62.5 (FanDuel)
Rematch-of-recent-title-games energy and two offenses that find chunk plays. Boise’s tempo plus UNLV’s verticals screams possessions, and special teams can tilt the over. Albertsons Stadium noise matters, but points feel stickier than side.

Pick: Over 62.5.

🎭 Track Meet Watch — O/U Feature
LSU Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores — Total 48.5 (ESPN BET)
Low total in a game with trench parity and coaching conservatism in short yardage. Fewer possessions, field-position tax, and red-zone stalls keep the clock moving. Noon kick in Nashville mutes volatility. Under gets there without late chaos.

Pick: Under 48.5

⚓ Option Anxiety Special
Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons — Air Force -4.5, Total 58.5 (FanDuel)
Option math plus altitude creates a possessions squeeze that rewards the cleaner run fits. Air Force’s ground efficiency and third-down defense tilt short-margin games, while Wyoming’s front must steal early downs to hang. Colorado Springs late can sap legs.

Pick: Air Force -4.5.

📈 Line Move Leverage
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona State Sun Devils — Texas Tech -10.5 (FanDuel)
Number popped through 10, inviting contrarians to ASU. Tech’s passing game tests a disciplined Sun Devil defense, but sustained pressure and tempo widen variance late. If you missed -9.5, you’re betting into a worse number, but matchup still favors the road favorite.

Pick: Texas Tech -10.5.

This weekend will deliver USC–Notre Dame drama, UNLV–Boise fireworks, and we’ll all pretend the Penn State buyout saga taught us fiscal responsibility.

Here’s the plan: hydrate, set three remotes, and respect the Blue Turf under.

Translation guide for the week ahead, “We’re focused on us” means panic mode, and “day-to-day” means maybe November.

Never trust October Heisman odds. Always remember, kickers write the last sentence. See you on the other side of Tennessee–Alabama, where logic goes to die and bankrolls go to live dangerously.

— The Convert on Fourth Down Team

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