Quarterbacks, Chaos, and Coaching Fires We Can’t Ignore

Welcome back, chaos curators, injury truthers, and fans already googling “is my coach buyout tax-deductible?”

College football didn’t wait long to go off the rails. Florida spit (literally) their way into a meltdown, Oklahoma State forgot defense is a thing, and the transfer portal calendar is being re-engineered by people who probably hate calendars. This week we get rivalry games with playoff weight, hot seats turning into bonfires, and just enough quarterback drama to make you wonder if “QB controversy” is actually a required course credit.

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📰 Two-Minute Drill

Missouri’s QB Curse Strikes Again
Sam Horn’s season lasted exactly one snap before a fractured tibia sent him to surgery. This is the same guy who already lost a year to Tommy John. Missouri now turns to Penn State transfer Beau Pribula, proving once again that Mizzou quarterbacks are basically a renewable injury resource.
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Portal Season Gets a Makeover
The NCAA just voted to kill the spring transfer portal window. Instead, starting in January 2026, players will get one 10-day window to jump ship right after the new year. Because nothing says “student-athlete welfare” like forcing 19-year-olds to choose between a new team and a New Year’s hangover.
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Julian Sayin Cashes In
It took Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin about two weeks of football to land his first big NIL deal. Freshman quarterbacks used to get Gatorade dumped on them; now they get Gatorade stock options. Somewhere, Ryan Day is refreshing Venmo.
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Hot Seat Watch: Now With Extra Flame
ESPN dropped its annual list of coaches most likely to get fired before Halloween. It’s a buffet of buyout math, alumni rage, and awkward press conferences waiting to happen. Reminder: “mutual parting of ways” is just code for “your AD changed the locks.”
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Dabo Wants Rules. Lots of Rules
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney is lobbying for a hard five-year eligibility cap to “clean up” the sport. Translation: if you’re 23 with three medical redshirts and a COVID waiver, pack your bags. Also, bold take from the man who once compared NIL to “the wild west.”
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🍿 The Popcorn Games

No. 6 Georgia @ No. 15 Tennessee
📍 Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
🕒 Saturday, 3:30 PM ET on ABC
It’s the SEC’s version of fireworks in broad daylight. Georgia’s still stacked with five-star talent, but Tennessee has the home crowd, a dangerous QB, and all the momentum. With College GameDay in town, this one feels less like a mid-September tilt and more like a playoff elimination game.

No. 16 Texas A&M @ No. 8 Notre Dame
📍 Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
🕒 Saturday, 7:30 PM ET on NBC/Peacock
The Aggies stroll into South Bend trying to prove they’re more than defensive grit, while Notre Dame looks to plant its flag as a real playoff contender. CJ Carr and the Irish offense face a legit SEC test, and the recruiting stakes are just as high as the scoreboard. If either team loses, the playoff margin for error shrinks to zero.

No. 18 South Florida @ No. 5 Miami
📍 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
🕒 Saturday, 4:30 PM ET on The CW
The Battle for South Florida suddenly matters. USF shocked the Gators and cracked the Top 25, and now they’re aiming straight at Miami. The Hurricanes have speed and swagger, but the Bulls are playing with nothing to lose. A national audience on The CW is about to find out if USF is Cinderella—or just the next pumpkin.

Florida @ No. 3 LSU
📍 Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
🕒 Saturday, 6:30 PM ET on ABC
Saturday night in Death Valley is already terrifying, but add in Billy Napier’s job security and you’ve got pure SEC chaos fuel. LSU wants to flex as a playoff favorite, while Florida’s desperate to prove they’re not a punchline. If the Gators pull this off, Napier might just keep his office chair warm for another week.

🎯 Start. Sit. Cut. – Fantasy Player Movement

Start - Germie Bernard – WR, Alabama

In two games in 2025, Germie Bernard has 12 receptions for 201 yards, with one touchdown. He showed his potential as a downfield threat against Georgia Tech, with a long reception of 45 yards. His performance so far suggests he's a top-three target in a dynamic Alabama offense.

Start - Devin Mockobee – RB, Purdue

Through two games in 2025, Devin Mockobee has 25 carries for 185 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He's also been a factor in the passing game, adding three receptions for 66 yards. Mockobee's early season workload and production show he remains the lead back for the Boilermakers and a solid fantasy option.

Sit - Max Klare – TE, Ohio State

Max Klare has 2 receptions for 18 yards and no touchdowns through two games. His usage has been very limited in the Ohio State passing game, and with a deep roster of receiving weapons, he is not seeing the target volume needed to be a reliable fantasy starter at this time.

Sit - Desmond Reid – RB, Pitt

Desmond Reid has tallied 112 rushing yards and 71 receiving yards on 24 total touches through two games. While his all-purpose yardage is notable, his fantasy production has been inconsistent. Against a tough opponent like Louisville, his volume may not be high enough to make him a confident start.

Sit - CJ Donaldson – RB, Ohio State

CJ Donaldson has 24 carries for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns through two games, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. While his talent is clear and he has found the end zone, his workload has been inconsistent in Ohio State’s high-powered but balanced offense. He may be a "sit" against strong defenses unless you are in a deep league and need a flex option.

Cut - Sam Horn – QB, Missouri

Sam Horn is out for the remainder of the 2025 season after suffering a fractured tibia in the first game. He has already undergone surgery and will not be a factor this year. His fantasy season is over, and he should be cut from all rosters.

Dante Dowdell – RB, Kentucky

In two games, Dante Dowdell has 185 rushing yards and one touchdown on 28 carries, with an average of 6.6 yards per carry. Despite a solid performance in Week 1, he had a less productive outing in Week 2, raising questions about consistent usage in a crowded backfield. Unless you are in a very deep league or have a roster spot to spare, his usage and limited touches make him a viable cut candidate in favor of a player with a clearer path to consistent production.

🩼 The Walking Boot – Injury Update

Sam Horn, QB – Missouri

The Tigers' quarterback room just got a lot less crowded. Sam Horn's 2025 season is over after he underwent surgery to repair a fractured tibia he sustained on the first offensive snap of the season. It's a tough break for the young QB, who was set to be a key part of Mizzou's two-quarterback system.

Kevin Jennings, QB – SMU

SMU’s offense is holding its breath after quarterback Kevin Jennings was a limited participant in Tuesday’s practice due to an ankle injury. While X-rays were reportedly negative and all signs point to him playing this weekend, the injury could impact his mobility. Fantasy managers should monitor his status closely for any last-minute updates.

Antonio Williams, WR – Clemson

The Tigers will have to lean on their younger receivers for the time being. Star wide receiver Antonio Williams is considered day-to-day with a hamstring injury he suffered in the season opener. His status for this weekend is up in the air, leaving a big void in the Clemson offense that he led in receiving yards last season.

💥 Dumpster Fire 5 – Pain Rankings (Week 0: Preemptive Edition)

Think of this as a "watch list for implosion"—programs that, before even taking a snap, are already sending up smoke signals. Injuries, distractions, PR flops, you name it. Here's who could be knocking on the gates of Week 1 chaos:

1. Florida
   Florida looked like a program in trouble before the season, but their game vs. USF was a dumpster sparkle. USF stunned the Gators 18-16 on a walk-off FG, and the loss couldn’t have looked more avoidable. Senseless penalties, sloppy execution, and a defensive lineman (Brendan Bett) ejected for spitting, which directly led to a USF scoring opportunity. It’s Week 2 and Billy Napier is hearing the hot seat sizzle.

2. Oklahoma State
   OXO where the smell of failure is coming up. OSU got embarrassed 69-3 by No. 6 Oregon — its worst loss under Mike Gundy ever. The Cowboys were overmatched in every phase: offense couldn’t move, defense couldn’t stop anything, and the margin was historic. Now they head into a bye week trying to piece together answers against a roster that’s been turned over wildly.

3. Virginia Tech
   From promising halftime vs. Vanderbilt to getting steamrolled in the second half. The Hokies held a lead at the half, then allowed 34 unanswered points from Vanderbilt and gave up over 7 yards per rush. Offensive stagnation, defensive breakdowns, and a home crowd watching confidence bleed away in real time. For a program with expectations, 0-2 feels dangerously close to “oh no” mode.

4. UCLA
   The Bruins were supposed to be better. Instead, they’re committing penalties like tax evasion, turning the ball over, and watching the QB they snagged in the offseason struggle in clutch moments. Nico Iamaleava had flashes, but couldn’t complete the drive with a chance to tie vs. a less heralded UNLV. Meanwhile, fans are already comparing what they gave up vs. what they got. It looks like momentum leaks are real.

5. Maryland
   Maryland is bleeding momentum in the roster department. Coming off a disastrous 2024, the Terps lost tons of production (starters, backups, portal exits). They were in a tough spot entering 2025, but going into youth mode feels like the only option. Freshman quarterback Malik Washington looks promising, but he’s working behind a line that lacks seniority. Early wins mask what might become a rudderless offensive identity as Big Ten competition ramps up.

🎲 The Spread Option – Week 3 Picks

The college football landscape is already a glorious mess, and this week we're getting into the spirit of the "We're in a Mess" Bowl Series with some glorious, chaotic matchups. Time to make some picks that will either make us look like geniuses or just add more fuel to the dumpster fire.

Record Last Week: 1-2-1

Season Total: 2-5-1 (the sportsbook thanks us for our service)

Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers (-3.5)

These two are a perennial "Déjà Vu" Bowl matchup. It feels like every year, this game is a coin toss—a glorious, high-scoring, no-defense coin toss. With both teams looking like they're still figuring out who they are, the only thing you can count on is a lot of points and a nail-biting finish. The points are too juicy to pass up, and history suggests this will be a tight one.

Pick: Florida +3.5

Oregon State Beavers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5)

Welcome to the "Nobody Told Us It Was This Far" Bowl. Oregon State is traveling halfway across the country, and Texas Tech is hoping their home field advantage is enough to stop the Beavers' ground game. This will be a classic contrast in styles: Oregon State’s methodical approach versus Texas Tech’s air raid offense. Expect the unexpected, but lean on the team that can run the ball.

Pick: Oregon State +2.5

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (+7.5)

The "Sibling Rivalry" Scuffle is rarely pretty. Ole Miss has the talent, but Arkansas always plays them tough. This will be a physical, ugly SEC brawl that could go either way. While Ole Miss is favored, the Razorbacks' home field and desire to spoil their rival's season makes the underdog a tempting play.

Pick: Arkansas +7.5

Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-13.5)

The "Wait, We Play Each Other?" Bowl. This is a classic in-state game where the little brother always plays above their weight. Old Dominion is scrappy and will get up for this game. Virginia Tech has the talent advantage, but will they be able to cover a two-touchdown spread against a team that knows them well? I'll take the Monarchs to keep it within two scores.

Pick: Old Dominion +13.5

That’s it for this week’s dose of chaos theory disguised as football analysis. Remember: hot seats get hotter, spreads get weirder, and nothing ruins a Saturday like trusting a kicker. Enjoy the weekend slate, keep your remote batteries fresh, and don’t ever believe a coach who says “we like where we’re at.”

— The Convert on Fourth Down Team

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